Loop Capital upgrades Burger King's parent company, says stock can rally more than 20%

Published Fri, Sep 29 20238:02 AM EDTUpdated Fri, Sep 29 202311:15 AM EDT

Burger King's parent company Restaurant Brands International is leading a successful brand turnaround, according to Loop Capital. Following "another round of positive Burger King checks," the firm upgraded shares to buy from hold. Its price target of $81 suggests shares are rallying 21.3% from where they closed Thursday. According to analyst Alton Stump, Burger King's same-store sales gained 8.5% to 9% quarter to date through late September, topping estimates of 7.7% growth. "On a 2-year stacked basis 8.5-9.0% comp growth equates to a gain of 12.5-13.0%, a significant acceleration from Burger King's reported 2-year domestic stacks of 8.7% in 2Q23," Stump said in a note. The analyst added that this level of growth for Burger King domestically in the third quarter "would represent a comp beat for the fourth quarter in a row. Perhaps more important than Burger King's performance during the current quarter itself, our contacts are growing increasingly confident that key initiatives taken by corporate under new leadership over the last 6-12 months have proven successful in turning the brand around." The burger chain's Royal Crispy Wrap and Honey Mustard Royal Crispy Chicken Sandwich released mid-August have sold "surprisingly well," according to Stump. The wrap options have generated an estimated 3% to 3.5% lift to same-store sales to date, he noted. While the wraps are a limited-time offering, he cited an anonymous Burger King franchisee contact who said there is a good possibility it could become a permanent menu addition. The company's new leadership has helped improve Burger King's image over the past six to 12 months, said Stump. "These key initiatives mainly included the highly popular 'Whopper Whopper' marketing campaign introduced in November of last year, a renewed focus on product innovation around the company's flagship Whopper offering, and an improved alignment of corporate and franchisee focus on improving store-level profitability," he added. Restaurant Brands International acquired Popeyes in 2017, and also owns Canadian donut chain Tim Hortons. Shares of Restaurant Brands International gained 1.2% Friday during premarket trading. Year to date, the stock is up only 3.2%. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.